Tips from the big bookies Saturday March 23

The Racenet stable of 10 bookies have narrowed it down to five of the 16 runners in Saturday’s Group I Golden Slipper at Rosehill.

The bagmen have done the form and provided their thoughts on the $3.5 million feature, offered their best and value bets as well as the horses that they think can’t win and where the money is going at the major meetings around the country.

NOTE: The PDF version is at the bottom of the tips for those that like to print a copy.

Here is this week’s edition of ‘Tips from the big bookies’.

Will Byrne – Sportsbet

GOLDEN SLIPPER – COSMIC FORCE – Race 7 No.5 (Rosehill)
Impossible to ignore what he did last week, both visually and on the clock. Will handle the ground and get a lovely run with a good jockey aboard. The one to beat in a competitive Golden Slipper.

BEST – CLASSIQUE LEGEND – Race 2 No.14 (Rosehill)
Could not have been any more impressive in his first two runs. Looks like a Group I horse in the making. Will control the race and should be way too good for this lot.

VALUE – UNFORGOTTEN – Race 6 No.12 (Rosehill)
Looks ready to peak third-up after two solid runs behind Winx. The distance suits and she will handle the wet ground. Looks a good each-way play at the juicy odds.

LAY – REDZEL – Race 8 No.1 (Rosehill)
Champion sprinter which is not particularly well placed under handicap conditions. There are plenty of lightweight chances in the race so Redzel will have to be at his absolute best to win.

BACKED – THE AUTUMN SUN – Race 4 No.1 (Rosehill)
He’s the most popular colt in the country and our punters have jumped on him. We opened with $1.60 but has been hammered into $1.35. Seems to be the anchor of everyone’s multi.

 

Bet365

Matthew Steed – Bet365

GOLDEN SLIPPER – PIN SEC –Race 7 No.10 (Rosehill)
Lightly-raced filly which returned in cracking order when a dominant win in the Black Opal. Obviously, it’s much tougher here but she looks untapped and it’s worth a play at the odds.

BEST – GRAFF – Race 8 No.6 (Rosehill)
Classy three-year-old fitter for two runs back from a spell when on the heels of the placegetters at two top level races in Victoria. Looks set to peak here, back on his preferred track and looks hard to beat.

VALUE – HE’S EMINENT – Race 6 No.5 (Rosehill)
Well below his best last preparation but prior to that he had mixed it with some of the very best. James McDonald takes the ride and reports have been very positive since arriving here.

LAY – TRAP FOR FOOLS – Race 7 No.1 (Mornington)
Hard to knock the way he is going in WFA events but suddenly finds himself with 61kg over a trip he’s never won at. Can certainly win but happy to risk him at the price on offer.

BACKED – MISS TOORAK FLYER – Race 2 No.8 (Mornington)
Been knocking on the door of late and has race fitness on her side over some of her main rivals here. She’s been pushed from $5.50 into $4 since the markets opened on Wednesday.

 

Ladbrokes

Dane Zimmerlie – Ladbrokes

GOLDEN SLIPPER – MICROPHONE – Race 7 No.2 (Rosehill)
Hasn’t put a foot wrong all preparation and draws likely to stalk the speed. Easily accounted for last week’s seven length winner Cosmic Force when winning last start and looks hard to beat here.

BEST – MR QUICKIE – Race 9 No.1 (Mornington)
Swamped his opposition from well back when winning last start and arguably faces an easier task here. Draws to sit midfield and should have too much class for these and be too strong late.

VALUE – CALL IT A DAY – Race 3 No.3 (Mornington)
Saves his best for this track having won or placed in all four attempts. Draws to sit midfield and will be charging late. Looks great value around the $6.50 mark.

LAY – ISLAND DAZE – Race 3 No.4 (Mornington)
Draws the extreme outside gate and will do plenty of work in the run. Has come up favourite in opening markets and looks to skinny from the wide draw.

BACKED – GET STUCK IN – Race 7 No.3 (Eagle Farm)
Has won his last three starts in a row and our punters are confident he can add a fourth here having backed him in from a high of $3.80 into $2.40.

Neds

Clint Wallis – Neds

GOLDEN SLIPPER – TENLEY – Race 7 No.9 (Rosehill)
Has been very impressive in her three starts to date, winning them all with relative ease. Drawn ideally in gate six, so expecting her to settle just off the speed, and will hopefully get her opportunity in the straight.

BEST – STAR MISSILE – Race 9 No.5 (Mornington)
Turned in a dominant win coming from the back of the field at Cranbourne on a night that was severely favouring leaders. The step up to 1600m shouldn’t be an issue and looks hard to beat again.

VALUE – DANZDANZDANCE – Race 6 No.10 (Rosehill)
Won two at Group I level in NZ at her first two runs back this campaign. Went toe to toe with Melody Belle in the NZ Stakes at her most recent start. Loves the wet and looks over the odds at around $8.

LAY – CLASSIQUE LEGEND – Race 2 No.14 (Rosehill)
Has settled outside leader in both his career runs, for two impressive wins. Big jump in class here and draws wide in barrier 11. Think there’s enough against him this week to stay out of the $1.85.

BACKED – SHRAOOH – Race 3 No.10 (Rosehill)
Had his second Australian start and Randwick two weeks ago, which was a much-improved run. Punters are thinking his hoof is on the till this week, as he’s been $4.50 into $3.40 since the markets opened.

 

Betstar

Gareth Phillips – Betstar

GOLDEN SLIPPER – COSMIC FORCE – Race 7 No.5 (Rosehill)
Dominant seven length win in the Pago Pago and trained by big race specialists Peter and Paul Snowden. Assuming the track will be wet and the inside playing fair, he will be hard to beat.

BEST – MULLAGHMORE – Race 2 No.2 (Eagle Farm)
Ideally suited up to 2000m and he looks to kick start the training career Kacy Fogden. He convincingly beat the current equal favourite last start.

VALUE – MISS QUE – Race 1 No.10 (Rosehill)
Not much luck and beaten less than a length last start, would prefer her on a drier track than the current heavy (8), but the double figure odds on offer is still value.

LAY – CLASSIQUE LEGEND – Race 2 No.14 (Rosehill)
Impossible not to be impressed by his two dominant wins, and he may well prove to be a star, but this is much tougher for him and he is very skinny odds at $1.80.

BACKED – THE AUTUMN SUN – Race 4 No.1 (Rosehill)
Short odds haven’t stopped the punters from being on the boom colt. We went up with $1.60 which has been slammed all the way into $1.35. The punters believe he will be adding another Group I.

 

Unibet

Wayne Symons – Unibet

GOLDEN SLIPPER – LYRE – Race 7 No.7 (Rosehill)
She hasn’t put a hoof wrong and ticked the wet and Sydney way with a strong trial performance last week. She will drift back from the gate but there is enough speed to see her getting wide and powering home.

BEST – CLASSIQUE LEGEND – Race 2 No.14 (Rosehill)
I think this is the last time we will see this three-year-old in Australia before going to Hong Kong. He looks to have immense talent and although this is his toughest test, I expect him to win.

VALUE – DANZDANZDANCE – Race 6 No.10 (Rosehill)
Comes here from New Zealand in good form having contested Group I level at all four starts this prep winning two and last start was only just beaten by Melody Belle on heavy in the NZ Stakes.

LAY – AVILIUS – Race 6 No.2 (Rosehill)
He was very disappointing in the Australian Cup where he had every chance and didn’t finish off. I would want to see him return to form before I could back him again, especially as favourite.

BACKED – SHRAAOH – Race 3 No.10 (Rosehill)
Punters expect the step up in trip and the affected ground to be right up this import’s alley and have stepped in and backed him from $4.40 into $3.50. I don’t think the money will stop there.

 

PalmerBet

James Thomas – PalmerBet

GOLDEN SLIPPER – MICROPHONE –Race 7 No.2 (Rosehill)
Won on debut at Flemington before narrowly missing in the Blue Diamond prelude. Bounced back to win the Talindert and then went straight past Cosmic Force in the Skyline which is the favourite for this.

BEST – MULLAGHMORE – Race 2 No.2 (Eagle Farm)
Went down in a photo finish last start but that run will have him primed for this. The 2200m looks like it will suit him perfectly and there isn’t a lot of depth to the field.

VALUE – DOMED – Race 9 No.9 (Rosehill)
She does not win out of turn but ran on well last start and has found a suitable race here. She ran second in the same race last year and looks a great value bet at the each-way odds.

LAY – CLASSIQUE LEGEND – Race 2 No.14 (Rosehill)
Excellent start to his career going two from two but this is a big step up in grade. He looks too short at his current quote and I think you will get better odds on raceday.

BACKED – SHRAOOH – Race 3 No.10 (Rosehill)
He opened at $4.50 earlier in the week and he has been absolutely smashed. Gets out to a more suitable distance here and top jockey Kerrin McEvoy rides.

 

tab.com.au

Glenn Munsie – TAB.com.au

GOLDEN SLIPPER – TENLEY – Race 7 No.9 (Rosehill)
She has impressed me with her strength at the finish of her races and with speed surely on here as most is drawn wide, her last 200m will be her biggest asset.

BEST – DANZDANZDANCE – Race 6 No.10 (Rosehill)
Superior wet tracker which looks to get a sweet run here from the inside draw in a race where they won’t fly. Has two NZ Group I wins along with two placings which are all on wet. Great value.

VALUE – DOMED – Race 9 No.9 (Rosehill)
Ran second in this last year on a similar track and love the fact she is coming back slightly from 2000m rather than stepping up from 1600m like the majority of her opposition. Goes better on wet as well.

LAY – REDZEL – Race 8 No.1 (Rosehill)
Seems to me he likes to dictate rather than be dictated and with the likes of Ball Of Muscle. Jungle Edge, Nature Strip and Easy Eddie I can’t possibly see that happening.

BACKED – SHRAOOH – Race 3 No.10 (Rosehill)
In a race chock full of runners wanting the wet our customers have zeroed in on this guy backing him from $5 into $3.40 by Friday morning and to the exclusion of any other runner.

 

Bet Easy

Matt Campbell – BetEasy

GOLDEN SLIPPER – PIN SEC – Race 7 No.10 (Rosehill)
She won on soft on debut and while she hasn’t been racing against the cream, she did win the Black Opal in Canberra by four lengths. Maybe she is on the up and can peak here.

BEST – STAR FALL – Race 2 No.3 (Mornington)
Has been freshened up for this after a loss in a race of much better quality at Randwick. Prior to that he was very good winning two in a row and drops back to 1000m where he is undefeated.

VALUE – LEGIONNAIRE – Race 5 No.3 (Mornington)
Both of his runs to date where haven’t gone according to plan, but both times he has had something left at the end and gone through the line. He gets out to 1500m here which looks ideal.

LAY – ISLAND DAZE – Race 3 No.4 (Mornington)
Unchartered territory four runs into a prep so think that might be a risk. She gets back to 1200m where she won two of her last three but in both of occasions she’s drawn in and been able to be up on speed.

BACKED – SHRAOOH – Race 3 No.10 (Rosehill)
Leaving the great mare out of the equation, but her stablemate has had plenty of support. Punters are happy to back him after that terrific second-up run especially now out to 2400m.

 

bookmaker.com.au

Joshua Bell – Bookmaker

GOLDEN SLIPPER – TENLEY – Race 7 No.9 (Rosehill)
Godolphin has plenty of live chances in the race however Tenley has drawn well which can be a big difference in a 1200m race for young green horses. She’s unbeaten and has the best jockey in Sydney.

BEST – THE AUTUMN SUN – Race 4 No.1 (Rosehill)
His win in the Randwick Guineas was something to behold and I don’t think he’ll have a problem with the 2000m. Hoping it’s a dominant win so he takes on Winx in the Queen Elizabeth.

VALUE – STAR REFLECTION – Race 1 No.8 (Rosehill)
The always astute Australian Bloodstock picked up this progressive mare for very cheap and she has been a beauty for them. Her first-up effort was huge as she is over the odds at $15.

LAY – AVILIUS – Race 6 No.2 (Rosehill)
Corey Brown gave him an absolute peach and he had the perfect run in transit in the Australian Cup and still came up plenty short. He is clearly a talented horse but I’m happy to take him on as favourite.

BACKED – MUSIC BAY – Race 4 No.3 (Mornington)
The Choisir filly has been very well supported in early betting after her eye catching second last start when she was resuming. She has been $3.60 into $2.70 with us.

 

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PRODUCED BY RACENET – All care is taken in compiling this product but no responsibility will be accepted by RACENET. Ensure you check official TAB sheets before placing a bet.

(Excerpt) Read more Here | 2019-03-22 01:55:34
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